I remember a time, sa paglipas 20 years ago now, Kapag halos walang kapital na propesyonal sa pinamamahalaang nangibang hangganan sa Africa. When aid and corruption drove the investment narrative. When Africa was called the “wala nang pag-asa na kontinente". When sustainability wasn’t even part of an investor’s vocabulary. We’ve come a long way.

The millennium heralded rapid growth across the African continent. At around 3%, mga rate ng default sa African imprastraktura ay ilan sa mga pinakamababang sa mundo. Africa has the fastest growing population and is seeing a wave of innovation and entrepreneurship sweeping across the continent. The latter is strongly enabled by mobile phone technology which has directly facilitated a financing revolution. Off on-grid solar panel installation ay kumapal, binili sa pamamagitan ng buwanang mga pagbabayad na ginawa sa mga cell phone, through companies like Mobisol and M-Kopa.

Siyempre, global at lokal na mga pangyayari, kabilang sa mga 2014 langis-presyo pagkabigla tinamaan pangunahing ekonomiya lalo na mahirap; Nakita namin ang bagong pag-unti ng pagganap sa Angola, Nigeria, and my home country of South Africa. But overall, African economies have been resilient and the continent’s long-term growth story – particularly green growth – remains compelling.

Bilyun-bilyong dolyar ay naging namuhunan sa renewable energy sa buong kontinente. Noong nakaraang taon, Nigeria ay naglabas ng isang N10.69 bilyon (US$ 29 milyon) berdeng bono to fund local solar and forestry projects. This is Africa’s first sovereign green bond – one of only a handful in the world (kasabay ng China, France, Poland, Fiji at Indonesia). Kenya will soon follow.

Ang World Bank also estimates that aggregate growth in Sub-Saharan Africa for 2018 magiging sa paligid 3.2%, umahon mula sa 2.4% noong nakaraang taon. The continent is expected to host six of the 10-fastest growing economies of the world in 2018, Habang sa tradisyonal na mga asset sa ilalim ng pamamahala (kabilang ang mga pensiyon at mutual funds) are forecast to grow to around US$1.1 trillion by 2020, up from US$634billion in 2014.

Sa madaling salita, Ang Africa ay napaka "bukas para sa negosyo", particularly for investors who are chasing yield and diversification. China’s got the message, committing to US$60 billion in new investment in major capital projects across Africa. Indeed, Tsina ay naging mahalagang bahagi ng pagpapabata ng Africa sa pagiging ang pinakamalaking eksport ang destinasyon ng Africa, nito sa pinakamalaking pinagmumulan ng inaangkat at mas kamakailan ang pinakamalaking kabisera ng pinagmulan, kapwa sa equity at sa utang.

Ito ang hudyat na positibong, but a lot more capital is still needed, lalo na mula sa malalaking Institusyunal na namumuhunan. Estimates put the African imprastraktura depisit sa paligid US$ 90 bilyon every year for the next decade. Across the continent, 620 milyong tao wala pa rin koryente; 319 milyong tao ang nakatira na malayo sa maaasahang iniinom na tubig; at tanging 34% may kalsada access.

May mga ilang bagay na makatutulong sa. Una, "blending" pampubliko at pribadong kapital mapagbubuti ng asset na profile ng panganib-pagbabalik, so vehicles which use development money to mitigate investor risks can attract much needed commercial investment. Some of these vehicles – like Ang palitan ng pera, which offers FX hedging in emerging markets – have successfully mobilised billions of dollars of private money for African projects.

Another example is the Umuusbong Africa Infrastructure Fund (EAIF) with projects ranging from water supply in Rwanda to solar power in Uganda. The EAIF is part of the Private Infrastructure Development Group (nang pantay-pantay mula sa pamahalaan na kabilang ang UK, Sweden, Germany at sa Netherlands) and recently announced that it had akit ang unang komersyal na nagpapahiram sa global kompanyang nagseseguro Allianz, as part of a $385 million fund-raising round. This investment signals a shift in appetite for African risk from institutional investors. These vehicles need to be scaled and replicated.

Pangalawa, to attract investment for high-impact assets like climate-resilient, sustainable infrastructure, development banks need to be more effective at crowding sa private capital using instruments like political risk insurance and guarantees, not crowding them ang. Sa pinakamahusay na, ang mga bangko ng multilateral na pag-unlad (MDBs) iba't-mas mababa sa $1 ng pribadong kapital para sa bawat pampublikong dolyar sa kabuuan ng kanilang portfolio. They should target much higher mobilisation ratios and sharply increase their share of private sector activities (na kasalukuyang lamang na account para sa paligid 30% sa mga aktibidad ng MDB).

Sa ikatlo, frontier countries must compete for investor dollars by making it easier for the private sector to do business. This requires strong, pampulitikang pamumuno, depth in local capital markets, the right legal framework and transparent policies. In particular, local policies should support regional simplicity to facilitate cross-border operations that can generate scale. Halimbawa, a very important, but much-overlooked regulatory amendment recently saw the amount that Pondo ng pagreretiro sa South Africa ay mamuhunan sa kapahingahan ng Africa pagtaas mula 5% upang 10%. It’s only when public markets are deep enough for strong exits that we’ll see bigger and bigger deals happening.

Higit sa lahat, if we really want to see sustainable growth and the associated economic and financial returns, ang komunidad ng pamumuhunan ay kailangang humantong. We need to take a leaf out of China’s book, taglaying ng isang oportunidad sa pamumuhunan sa imprastraktura ng African, sinasamantala ng mga kasangkapan sa pagpapagaan ng panganib at pagtugon sa malaking puwang sa panganib ang pang-unawa sa pagitan ng umuusbong at binuo ang mga merkado. Maaari din nating gamitin ating investing kapangyarihan sa pinahahalagahan na nauugnay sa drayb para sa mga shareholders habang prioritising ang mga "green", pangmatagalang kaunlaran (e.g. through initiatives like Aksyon ng klima 100+).

This is all part of how we move away from an “aid-based” narrative to one of business and investment. It is also how we can provide the platform for economic inclusion of the world’s most youthful and fastest growing labour force. I dream of a future shaped by bold and wise investment decisions.

 

PINAGMUMULAN: CNBC Africa